College ROI: The Time Traveler's Guide to Outsmarting the System in the Age of GenAI.

In times of uncertainty -- great opportunity exists. This article is the opportunity bridge.

The year 2025 brings a chilling dose of reality to American higher education. Between proposed government shutdowns forcing layoffs at the Department of Education and political leaders questioning the tax-exempt status of massive university endowments, there is profound uncertainty. For most families without significant savings—without a "money tree" planted in the backyard—the central question is stark: How do I navigate the soaring cost of college amid financial and political instability?

As a professor of behavioral personal finance at James Madison University and the founder of Personal Finance Reimagined (PFR), I assert: Do not sit this one out. Now is the time to act, but to act with knowledge, strategy, and courage. Our framework emphasizes structured decision-making to achieve College ROI, especially during times of market and political flux.

About the author: Jeff Hulett leads Personal Finance Reimagined, a decision-making and financial education platform. He teaches personal finance at James Madison University and provides personal finance seminars. Check out his book -- Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions.

Jeff is a career banker, data scientist, behavioral economist, and choice architect. Jeff has held banking and consulting leadership roles at Wells Fargo, Citibank, KPMG, and IBM.

The Compounding Value of Higher Education

First, address the existential question: Is college still worth it in the age of Generative AI (GenAI)?

The value of education is undeniably greater than ever. A recent study of global executives participating in the World Economic Forum suggested GenAI will cause disruption, yet the job gains from GenAI will greatly outstrip the job losses. The real choice is which category you land in. Higher education, especially learning to be a thinking partner with GenAI, is essential for securing a position in the jobs gained category.

Crucial Call-Out: While AI and data will be an important part of the future economy, it is critical thinking skills that will enable people to be on the "jobs gained" side. AI and data require many different skill sets based on employees that are Trainers, Sustainers, or Explainers, not just data scientists.

Continuous self-learning is the table stakes for success in the global economy. This reinforces the core tenet of PFR: achieving a positive College ROI—a high-quality education at a sensible price—is crucial for long-term wealth. So the value of higher education is not in question, but how much we pay for that value is the massive question!

Overcoming Fear with Environmental Insight

The behavioral sciences teach us something very relevant. We assign a much higher weight to loss than we assign to gain. So while objectively, we may know the job gains will far outstrip the job losses, it will feel much worse and scarier. This uncertainty-based disconnect between the objective and the emotion creates an opportunity for those able to overcome their fear.

As information, fear is a blunt signal; it provides no significance weight on its own. You determine the meaning of your fear by truly understanding your environment.

To begin interpreting a fear signal, let's start with where you live. Your state and its commitment to higher education. In the United States, two kinds of state higher education systems exist: college student importers and college student exporters.

Net Importer States, like Virginia, have made a deep commitment to educating their citizens top-to-bottom. They believe educating citizens encourages them to stay and become productive members of the state economy. If you live in a net importer state, you already have a massive advantage for achieving college ROI, a public commitment funded by taxpayer dollars.

On the other hand, there are Net Exporter States, with New Jersey being a notable example, which generally have not committed to providing enough public higher education seats at a price encouraging their college-bound student residents to stay. If you are from a Net Exporter State, you still have a viable path to achieving College ROI. While fewer choices may exist, your best financial path involves leveraging strong out-of-state Net Importer State community college or 4-year programs, allowing you to access a high-quality, cost-effective education despite your local environment.

(The source for your state's college student import/export status is found at the end of the article.)

The High-ROI Community College Strategy

For families worried about taking on debt or the shifting federal lending landscape, the solution lies in strategically reducing the cost of the first two years. This is where the Community College → Residential College (CC → RC) path becomes the high-impact solution. Community college provides the added advantage of "buying your time" to let the Federal Government turmoil shake out, and still move forward with higher education.

The core question you must ask is: How much should I pay for general education credits? A general education course at a community college can be discounted anywhere from 50% to 90% compared to the same course at a four-year residential college. From my long background in hiring recent college graduates, spending more than the cost of a quality state college education does not provide any advantages. Now, I get this may be controversial to some, who believe going to the "best" selective college makes a big difference. While I understand the marketing and mythology, I just have not seen evidence from a hiring standpoint. We hired many more successful employees from the state publics than from Ivy's.

This includes considering alternatives like the community college route, which can be a more cost-effective option without sacrificing educational quality or the employment signal quality.

If anything, recruiters consider 4-year college graduates with a community college transfer as a plus by demonstrating resilience.

The Financial Power of the CC Path

This value proposition applies to more than just students struggling to afford college. Even for a high schooler in the top 20-30% of their class, the CC path may still make sense. Going the CC path saves the student and the family real money. A value-focused, top-GPA student may choose the community college path.

Consider the profound financial impact of this saving:

• The CC path savings, in a $64,000 value creation example, could be invested or used to fund the student’s junior and senior year once they transfer to the RC.

• If invested long-term for the student’s retirement, the future value of $64,000 over 40 years at a 10% yield returns almost $3 million. (Source: Future Value Calculation, FV=PV(1+i)n).

Navigating the Transaction Costs of Transfer

While the cost differences are obvious and favor community college, the primary deterrent is behavioral, not financial. This strategic path requires cognitive time travel—the ability to imagine and commit to a complex, multi-stage future.

People may avoid this path because of the perception of higher transaction costs. College transaction costs are what economists call the "toil and trouble" of different college paths. These costs are often emotional and difficult to quantify, representing the internal friction we feel when facing change:

• Transfer Friction: The effort required to transfer credits and navigate a new university system.

• Social Capital Loss: The need to establish new friendships and the lack of an immediate, immersive social environment.

• Perceived Stigma: The worry of having to defend or explain the choice.

These anxieties cause people to overweight the psychological cost of transfer, making the simple, expensive, four-year RC path feel preferable to the more complex, inexpensive, two-step CC path. The great news is these transaction cost perceptions are able to be overcome with recognition and strategy. Based on the amazing long-term value potential, you have approximately $3 million in good reasons to overcome those transaction costs.

Tools for Financial Time Travelers

If the optimal college path requires advanced time travel skills, the answer is found in managing risk and uncertainty in the present. The Definitive Choice decision tool, part of the PFR framework, helps students structure this multi-stage decision to overcome cognitive friction.

1. De-Risk the Transfer with Data

Reduce the cognitive burden by reducing the friction now.

• Front-Load Credits: If you are in high school, take as many dual enrollment, Advanced Placement (AP), or IB classes as possible. These transferable credits save significant money and give you a head start.

• Establish Clear Maps: Work with the CC counselor to map out every course required for the first two years, ensuring clear articulation with the target four-year institution. This converts the abstract, scary transfer into a concrete, manageable checklist.

• Leverage State Systems: Almost all four-year public colleges have robust transfer relationships with local community colleges (e.g., JMU and Blue Ridge CC). In net importer states, these systems often guarantee transfer to almost any public four-year institution upon graduation from a CC, eliminating the primary fear of credit loss.

2. Quantify the Reward (Model Your Future Income)

The vast financial reward provides the powerful incentive needed to overcome the "toil and trouble." You must quantify the difference between your two college futures, extending the financial model beyond savings into career potential.

In my classes and seminars, we walk through in more detail how to achieve College ROI in a way involving the student’s and family’s good judgment, using reliable sources for career growth, wages, and college costs.

First, collect the direct college costs: Calculate the total debt load of the RC path versus the savings and increased compounding power gained by choosing the CC → RC path. This is a core component of the PFR one-hour college seminars.

Next, quantify future income. We advise students to research career tracks using data like the BLS Fastest Growing Jobs list. By identifying high-growth careers, you establish an achievable target income. Your college ROI decision then hinges on securing your first job, a process we demystify in my personal finance class. Leveraging campus organizations is critical for networking and skill application. Finally, students use the PFR decision approach to select the best first job, considering its long-term potential and alignment with their values, not just the initial salary.

Our approach helps you find a rewarding career, in an in-demand industry, where inspiring feedback and growth are more likely.

By estimating the ROI—including keeping costs down and quantified income streams—you transform an abstract concept into a tangible, motivational goal. The millions of dollars waiting at the destination prove the journey—the toil and trouble—is profoundly worth it.

Time travel is not easy. It requires us to make sacrifices today for the benefit of a future self we have not met. But in this college decision, the path requiring the most cognitive effort is the one with the highest financial payoff. By teaching students and families to be better financial time travelers, we empower them to earn their education wisely and claim the financial freedom waiting at the end of that time travel rainbow.

Resources for the Curious

This article is anchored in data, behavioral economics, and financial principles. For readers wishing to explore the sources and frameworks discussed, please review the following:

• Hulett, Jeff. Making Choices, Making Money. Personal Finance Reimagined, 2024.

Explains the PFR decision framework used to evaluate major life choices, providing a template for applying cognitive strategies to financial decisions.

• Hulett, Jeff. "Best Time to Start." Personal Finance Reimagined, 2024.

Presents an analysis of why continuous self-learning and a strategic mindset are crucial for securing long-term job gains amidst disruption caused by Generative AI.

• Hulett, Jeff. "Making the Best College Decision: Is Community College Worth It." The Curiosity Vine, 2024.

Illustrates the deep financial advantage of the CC → RC path, demonstrating how the cost savings can generate significant long-term wealth.

• Dale, Stacy Berg, and Alan B. Krueger. "Estimating the Payoff to Attending a Selective College: An Application of Selection on Observables and Unobservables." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002; and "The Payoff to Attending a Selective College: An Assessment of Recent Evidence." NBER Working Paper, 2011.

Presents seminal research demonstrating that for most students, the economic benefit of attending a highly selective college essentially disappears once student pre-existing abilities and motivation are controlled for.

• World Economic Forum. The Future of Jobs Report 2025. Geneva: WEF, 2025.

Forecasts global labor market trends, allowing students to identify the high-demand skills that will maximize the relevance and value of their degrees.

• Hulett, Jeff. "Do I Need to Be a Data Scientist in an AI-enabled World?" The Curiosity Vine, March 5, 2019. 

Details the three non-data science roles (Trainer, Sustainer, Explainer) necessary for professionals to succeed and adapt in the financially enabled world of Artificial Intelligence.

• Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Fastest Growing Occupations." U.S. Department of Labor, www.bls.gov.

Provides objective government data on high-growth career fields, which students must use to anchor their income expectations in evidence, not hope.

• NCES (IES Staff). "The 'Where' of Going to College: Residence, Migration, and Fall Enrollment." May 28, 2020.

Supports the discussion on Student Importer and Exporter States by providing official data on state-level net migration, including examples like New Jersey (largest negative net migration) and Virginia (a net importer state).

• Future Value Calculation.

Confirms the power of compounding by mathematically projecting the value of savings saved by avoiding the RC path, reinforcing the long-term financial payoff (FV=PV(1+i)n).