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Writer's pictureJeff Hulett

Harvard’s Inevitable Future: World Domination of the Higher Education Market

Updated: Oct 6

Harvard’s Inevitable Future: World Domination of the Higher Education Market

Harvard University stands at the apex of global higher education, boasting the largest academic endowment in the world—around $50 billion. This financial muscle, coupled with its long-standing reputation for academic excellence, places Harvard in an enviable position within the educational landscape. However, it is not the only institution with vast resources. Other Ivy League schools, selective colleges, and large public state universities also hold significant endowments. Together, these elite institutions have an opportunity to completely consolidate and dominate the higher education market, particularly through the integration of emerging technologies like generative AI (GenAI), such as ChatGPT.


This article provides a future vision - combining the needs of today - like dramatically less expensive, high quality, and available education with the promise of better technology - like GenAI plus the human touch to help learners along the way. Like any future vision - it cannot anticipate how inevitable uncertainties will play out - but it draws upon the trends and needs to make a compelling future case.


About the author:  Jeff Hulett leads Personal Finance Reimagined, a decision-making and financial education platform. He teaches personal finance at James Madison University and provides personal finance seminars. Check out his book -- Making Choices, Making Money: Your Guide to Making Confident Financial Decisions.


Jeff is a career banker, data scientist, behavioral economist, and choice architect. Jeff has held banking and consulting leadership roles at Wells Fargo, Citibank, KPMG, and IBM.


In a world where technology is revolutionizing industries at breakneck speed, higher education remains one of the most ripe for disruption. The question now is whether Harvard and its peers will leverage their formidable assets to embrace this transformation, or if they will remain tethered to their traditional structures, waiting for a competitor to take the lead. The prospect of creating a GenAI-based higher education system would be nothing short of revolutionary, allowing institutions like Harvard to scale their educational offerings globally, at a fraction of the current cost. The result could be the academic equivalent of Khan Academy on steroids, with the potential to fundamentally reshape the future of learning.


The Power of Harvard’s Endowment and Technological Opportunity


Harvard’s $50 billion endowment gives it unparalleled financial security, allowing the university to fund groundbreaking research, attract world-class faculty, and offer scholarships to top-tier students. Yet, when viewed through the lens of future growth and technological disruption, this financial cushion becomes more than just a safety net—it is the key to seizing a unique and massive opportunity.


Currently, Harvard earns approximately $500 million annually from academic services alone, based on its enrollment and tuition fees. But what if this revenue model could be scaled to reach not just a few thousand elite students on campus, but millions of learners worldwide? The rise of generative AI offers the perfect conduit for this vision. By ingesting Harvard’s curriculum and class materials into a large language model like ChatGPT, Harvard could disseminate its knowledge globally, offering a world-class education at a fraction of today’s cost.


The potential reach is staggering. Consider that there are approximately 100 million 18-year-olds on the planet. If Harvard were to tap into this demographic using GenAI-based educational platforms, it could offer access to its content for as little as $5 per person annually and still generate the same $500 million in academic revenue. The scalability of AI-driven education would enable learners from every corner of the globe to access Harvard-quality instruction, thereby democratizing education in a way that was previously unimaginable.


A Global Harvard: Education at a Fraction of the Cost


In this future scenario, Harvard could become the world’s dominant educational provider. The costs associated with traditional college amenities—such as campus housing, dining halls, and gyms—would be separated from the core academic experience. By shifting to a digital-first approach powered by GenAI, Harvard could focus exclusively on academic delivery while leaving students the option to seek out supplemental services, such as tutoring or extracurricular activities, as needed. This would create an affordable, high-quality educational model that empowers students to tailor their learning experiences to their individual needs.


The GenAI model would also introduce incredible efficiencies. Students could work at their own pace, guided by AI-driven insights and personalized learning paths. The technology could analyze their strengths and weaknesses, offering tailored suggestions for improvement, much like how platforms like Netflix or Amazon make content recommendations. For students requiring additional support, they could still hire tutors or access traditional in-person resources, but the core education would remain accessible and affordable for all.


This streamlined approach would not only drastically reduce the costs of higher education but could also upend the existing system of student debt. In the United States alone, student loan debt has ballooned to a staggering $1.7 trillion, a financial burden that hampers economic mobility for millions of graduates. Harvard’s adoption of a GenAI-based model could pave the way for the elimination of this debt crisis by offering affordable, world-class education to the masses. It could also render obsolete the Department of Education’s student loan organization, which has long been entangled in the complexities of funding higher education.


The Game Theory Behind Harvard’s Dilemma: To Innovate or Not?


While the potential benefits of a GenAI-based global education model are enormous, the reality is that institutions like Harvard are historically conservative. Colleges of this stature tend to resist change, preferring the safety of their existing structures. However, there is a compelling argument that Harvard—and other selective institutions—may not have the luxury of waiting for long.


To understand why, we can turn to a classic game theory model: the Prisoner’s Dilemma. In this scenario, two players must decide whether to cooperate or defect, with the understanding that mutual cooperation leads to a better overall outcome, but the fear of betrayal typically drives both parties to act in their own self-interest. The same logic can be applied to the higher education sector.


The best-case scenario for Harvard and its peers would be for everyone to maintain the status quo, ensuring that the traditional college model remains intact. However, with the rapid advancement of GenAI technology and declining enrollment rates due to demographic changes, the risk of defection looms large. It may not be Harvard that initiates the shift, but another elite institution might see the potential and make the leap. Once one school defects, leveraging GenAI to create a globally accessible education platform, others will be forced to follow suit, or risk falling behind.


In this version of the Prisoner’s Dilemma, Harvard’s fear of being left behind by a more nimble competitor could drive it to take the lead, embracing the GenAI model and transforming the global higher education landscape. Alternatively, if Harvard and its peers fail to act, they could find themselves disrupted by an outsider—possibly a tech company or a lesser-known university—who sees the untapped potential of AI-driven education.


The Financial and Social Impacts of Harvard’s Global Expansion


The global expansion of Harvard through GenAI would have far-reaching consequences, both financially and socially. For one, it would create a more inclusive and equitable education system. Today, access to a Harvard education is reserved for a select few, with acceptance rates hovering around 3-5%. However, a digital-first model powered by GenAI would democratize access, allowing millions of students worldwide to benefit from Harvard’s expertise, regardless of their socioeconomic background.


Moreover, this shift would force a reevaluation of traditional college amenities. Students who want the full “college experience”—dorm living, campus life, and sports entertainment—could still seek out these opportunities, but they would no longer be intertwined with the academic side of higher education. This unbundling of services would enable students to pay only for what they need, greatly reducing the overall cost of a degree.


Furthermore, the potential scale of this model could make Harvard’s dominance of the global education market a reality. No other institution has the combination of financial resources, brand reputation, and academic excellence to compete on this level. With the right technological infrastructure in place, Harvard could expand its reach to billions of learners, solidifying its position as the preeminent provider of higher education.


Conclusion: Will Harvard Seize the Opportunity?


The question is not whether the technology exists for Harvard to dominate the global education market, but whether it will seize the opportunity. The integration of generative AI offers an unprecedented chance to scale its educational offerings while reducing costs and expanding access. Harvard’s financial strength, combined with its reputation for excellence, positions it perfectly to capitalize on this technological revolution.


However, change does not come easily to institutions as entrenched as Harvard. It may take the defection of a competitor to force its hand, but the potential rewards for being the first mover in this space are enormous. With declining enrollment rates, rising costs, and an increasingly competitive global market, the pressure is mounting for Harvard and its peers to adapt.


In the end, the real question is whether Harvard will lead the charge in reimagining higher education or whether it will be forced to follow a more daring competitor into the GenAI-driven future. One thing is certain: the future of higher education is about to be transformed, and Harvard has all the tools it needs to emerge as the dominant player on the global stage. Time will tell if it chooses to do so.


Article Sources:


  • Hulett, Jeff. Higher Education Reimagined. The Curiosity Vine, 2020. 

  • Galloway, Scott. Post Corona: From Crisis to Opportunity. Penguin Random House, 2020.

  • Khan, Sal. The One World Schoolhouse: Education Reimagined. Twelve, 2012.

  • Caplan, Bryan. The Case Against Education: Why the Education System Is a Waste of Time and Money. Princeton University Press, 2018.

  • Hulett, Jeff. The Road to Absurdistan: Student Lending Psychology and Bizarre Incentives. The Curiosity Vine, 2022.

  • Hoover, Eric. "The Demographic Cliff: 5 Findings From New Projections of High-School Graduates." The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2020.

  • Khan Academy. "About." Khan Academy, https://www.khanacademy.org/about.

  • Axelrod, Robert. The Evolution of Cooperation. Basic Books, 1984.

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What a unique way to think about higher ed. I especially like the game theory angle. This may be fantasy... but it could come true! Thanks for your good ideas.

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